Tag: Scientist

  • Clinical Testing of Drugs and Pharma Companies, Patents.

    English: Logo of the .
    Image via Wikipedia

    Recently I came across an article in The Scientist on the Clinical trials of drugs in the US by the Pharma Corporations.

    baby.
    MATT COLLINS (BABY); US GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE REPORT, “PEDIATRIC RESEARCH,” MAY 2011

    Drugs ,it is reported that , are not tested on children and are marketed.

    The FDA is of the opinion that Clinical Trials of Drugs conducted on Children give off reliable results,especially the contra-indications.

    I am reproducing a real instance quoted in The Scientist.

    But the story of Paxil also illustrates the power of somewhat obscure laws that have saved children’s lives by changing the way drugmakers test their products.

    Paxil—which increases extracellular levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin by inhibiting its reuptake into presynaptic cells—was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 1992, and by 2000 it was making the drug company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) $2 billion per year. But around this time, problems with Paxil began to surface. Adult and adolescent patients were anecdotally reporting side effects, including sexual dysfunction, weight gain, high blood pressure, and increased suicidality—an uptick in thoughts of suicide or self-inflicted injury in some severely depressed patients. These reports of increased suicidality particularly worried pediatricians.

    In 1999 the FDA sent GSK a letter requesting that the company conduct clinical trials of Paxil in children and adolescents. To sweeten the deal, the FDA offered GSK a 6-month marketing exclusivity extension for Paxil in return. This extension, which in effect would buy GSK 6 extra months of patent protection by delaying marketing of generic versions, was an incentive written into the FDA Modernization Act (FDAMA) of 1997.

    GSK eventually agreed to conduct the requested studies and submitted the results to the FDA sometime in early 2002, after FDAMA had expired and been replaced by the Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act (BPCA) of 2002. Though GSK’s own reports on preliminary studies of Paxil in adolescents indicated that it was safe and more effective than a placebo—a heavily disputed interpretation contained in the article reporting the results of the now infamous study 3291—the FDA’s analyses of Paxil studies found that suicidal thoughts, suicide attempts, and episodes of self-harm were almost twice as high in young patients with major depressive disorder taking the drug than among those taking a placebo. To boot, the agency found that the drug was no more effective than placebo in treating major depression in children and adolescents”

    The point to be noted is that the Company doctored the report.

    Imagine a Corporation earning Billions of Dollars, despite getting a undeserved

    6 months  of patent protection, the company thought it fit to doctor the

    report,with scant report for Human Life.

    The Companies dodge testing on Children because of Legal implications and high cost of testing on children.

    Another point I note is that is testing drugs on Children Safe for them?

    I also read an interesting comment  on Patents.

    Featured Comment

    Legislators should remember who pays their salaries and to whom they are responsible. If taxpayers fund any part of a research activity then (a) no patents or copyrights should issue as a result, and (b) all results and unprocessed data should be available freely, similarly funded by the taxpayers. If the researchers and their sponsoring organizations don’t like the bargain, they should seek funding from non-public sources.tddial, Elsevier Abandons Anti-Open Access Bill

    VERY THOUGHTFUL AND VALID.

    http://the-scientist.com/2012/03/01/are-the-kids-alright/#fn-21915-1

  • The ten most exciting tools to hit the life sciences this year.-Scientist.

    It’s been a tough year for every industry, and the life sciences are no exception. Yet companies and academic laboratories across the globe have developed innumerable new products designed to take your research to the next level. But with many lab budgets tighter than last year, which technologies are worth the investment?

    Judge Bios
    Related Articles

    Use Light to Manipulate Cells

    Here’s To Intelligent Innovating

    Top Innovations of 2008

    That’s why, for the second year in a row, we have gathered a panel of expert judges to pick the year’s best innovations to hit the life sciences market in the past year. This year’s winners run the gamut from imaging, genomics, and other tools that stunningly capture both intracellular and extracellular processes. Our judges—Steven Wiley, Jean Wang, Shawn Levy, and David Piston—are all known for pushing the technical boundaries, and have collectively published more than 600 academic papers.

    It may have been a tough year for industry in general, but it was a great one for life science innovation.

    Cell culture in 3D

    Image courtesy of Amy Schneck
    The Benchtop BioLevitator, which combines an incubator and a centrifuge into a single unit, is one of the first 3D cell culture systems.

    “This is a completely new kind of technology,” says Amy Schneck, assistant product manager of the Hamilton Company, which developed the instrument. Besides creating a 3D culture, which is closer to an in vivo environment, the BioLevitator also allows researchers to grow more cells in less time relative to 2D culture, Schneck adds. Global Cell Solutions, a partner company, developed a unique microcarrier—a matrix lined with proteins—that facilitates cell growth on the 3D surface.

    The BioLevitator can grow four cell culture tubes at once and also contains internal magnets that keep cells suspended and homogenous. Multiple protein coatings support different cell lines. During the culture, each tube is monitored for carbon dioxide, temperature, cell density, and pH. When cultures are complete, all data can be transferred to a computer for analysis using the BioLevitator’s USB port.

    At $35,000, this compact, multipurposed instrument is also environmentally friendly because it works more efficiently than 2D systems, reducing the use of harsh chemicals and labware required for other instruments. As a result, Hamilton estimates that the 3D system can cut annual costs by 60 percent when culturing 40 million Chinese hamster ovary cells per week. The BioLevitator will be available in December 2009.

    LEVY: The benchtop size and microprocessor-controlled and -monitored environment, coupled with innovative use of magnetic fields to maintain cells in suspension, makes the BioLevitator an innovative product in a very traditional field.

    WILEY: This is a compact unit to greatly simplify microcarrier-based cell culture, which is usually a very complex system to implement. This should allow high-density culturing of anchorage-dependent cell lines, which are usually more physiologically relevant than anchorage-independent ones.

    New recipe for protein expression

    Image Courtesy of Claes Gustafsson, DNA2.0
    Synthetic genes are considered the most cost-efficient, timely, and flexible tool for achieving high levels of protein expression, a fundamental component of modern biotechnology research. But since different codons can produce the same amino acid, scientists have innumerable combinations to choose from when encoding a protein. And some combinations produce better results than others. Typically, researchers use anecdotal evidence to pick which set of codons will optimize protein expression, with hit-or-miss results. Now, scientists from the California-based company DNA2.0 have developed new design algorithms to predict the best set of codons to use based on actual gene characteristics. The system, described in the September issue of PLoS ONE, (4(9): e7002), produces protein expression up to 10 times better than previous approaches, says Mark Welch, the director of gene design for DNA2.0.

    The team designed, synthesized, and expressed varied sets of genes encoding two different proteins (a DNA polymerase and a single-chain antibody) and, based on which codons produced the most protein, developed a design principle to predict the gene combinations that optimize protein expression.

    The company made their E. coli algorithm free when they published it in PLoS ONE, but their yeast algorithm will cost up to $25,000 per year for use on an infinite number of genes, says Claes Gustafsson, the company’s vice president of sales and marketing. The price of already-made algorithms for other species varies depending on the size of the requesting institution and number of genes that need to be synthesized. The company can also develop algorithms for new hosts from scratch, but the process can take up to a year and cost between $100,000 and $250,000. The technology is still so new, Gustafsson says, that “the exact business plan is still up in the air.”

    PISTON: This is another important milestone towards the use of fully synthetic genes, especially for protein engineering applications.

    WILEY: Very nice! Definitely innovative thinking going on here.

    New measure of metabolism

    Image Courtesy of Steve Chomicz

    Invented by Seahorse Bioscience in Massachusetts, the XF96 Analyzer is the first instrument that can measure the two major energy pathways in cells—mitochondrial respiration and glycolysis—providing a comprehensive picture of cellular metabolism and how that process goes awry in disease. “Before this instrument, we could never do the magnitude or complexity of experiments,” says Steve Chomicz, vice president of sales & marketing at Seahorse Bioscience.

    Prior to the XF96 Extracellular Analyzer, scientists relied on the Clark electrode technology for measuring cellular oxygen consumption, a time-consuming technique that provided minimal information. Now in just 35 to 90 minutes, the XF Analyzer can measure oxygen consumption—an indicator of mitochondrial respiration—as well as extracellular acidification, which is a byproduct of glycolysis. After isolating a small volume of cells in a microplate, the instrument can measure the change in dissolved oxygen and pH levels using optical biosensors. With the instrument’s 96 wells, researchers can test the effects of up to four drugs on cellular metabolism, elucidating the bioenergetics of the cell. Currently selling for $100,000 to $200,000, the machine was first released to users in January 2009, and now boasts more than 400 clients worldwide.

    WILEY: I want one!

    PISTON: This is a great example of how the reduced volumes made possible with microfluidic principles can increase both signal-to-noise and temporal resolution.

    New sequence capture tool

    Image Courtesy of Eva Sterzel, Febit
    Scientists have a plethora of invaluable genomic data—3 billion base pairs’ worth—but no way to use it. The genome has been too large and cluttered for researchers to fully analyze the information. Now HybSelect, launched by the Germany-based company febit in March, uses DNA microarrays to narrow in on regions of the genome that play an important role in a particular disease. The technology has already been used to study cancer, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes.

    “It lets us dissect a large genome and isolate the juicy bits that can be used to research diseases,” says Peer Stähler, febit’s chief scientific officer and a former microbiologist at the Max Planck Institute for Brain Research.

    Researchers interested in isolating specific DNA sequences have two options: they can either send their samples to febit or buy the HybSelect technology themselves. Samples isolated at febit are sent back to researchers with tips on how to best sequence the genes. In case researchers don’t have access to sequencing equipment, the company also offers next-generation sequencing, the whole process taking just 2 weeks and costing as little as $10,000 (for a pilot study), says Stähler. Labs interested in cutting down shipping time can also purchase a Geniom RT Analyzer, the company’s all-in-one microarray processing and analysis instrument, and Geniom Biochip, which contains the HybSelect application, for $150,000. The machine is relatively small (55.7 x 90.7 x 66.5 cm; 110 kg) and can process up to 16 samples a day.

    WANG: The idea of sequence capture is not new, but the technological development is new and will improve the capacity and efficiency of deep sequencing.

    LEVY: The ever-increasing output of DNA sequencing technologies, the successes of genome-wide association studies, and the appreciation of how rare variants contribute to disease and phenotype all illustrate the need for efficient and cost-effective methods to capture genomic regions of interest for further characterization.

    All-in-one microscopes

    Image Courtesy of Olympus
    This year saw the introduction of two new all-in-one microscope systems from Olympus: the FluoView FV10i, the world’s first self-contained confocal microscope, which can be used for creating 3D views of a specimen, and the FSX100, a self-contained fluorescence and brightfield microscope, the first of its kind commercially available in the United States. Both systems combine the illumination systems, microscopes, movable stages, and cameras all into a simple little box.

    “They don’t look like anything that is typical for scientists,” says Mark Clymer, a product manager for Olympus. The fact that they are self-contained means they “can be installed just about anywhere.” Furthermore, he adds, these systems hold a particular advantage “for fluorescence imaging, which is typically done in dark rooms, [as] it can be done in the laboratories [with] the lights on.”

    Video courtesy of Olympus
    The FSX100 costs $55,000, and the FluoView FV10i runs $147,000 for the oil-based model and $167,000 for the water immersion version, optimal for live cell imaging.

    In addition, both microscopes are completely “software driven,” meaning they are extremely logical and can be easily navigated, even by first-time users. “Someone could sit down and really without any guidance can generate publication-quality images in minutes,” Clymer says, making these microscopes particularly useful in multiuser facilities.

    PISTON: Such a simple yet powerful microscope system will expand the use and development of fluorescent protein technology to labs with little or no imaging experience.

    WILEY: Very innovative, but will it find a use?

    Zinc fingers create knockout rat

    Image Courtesy of the Medical College of Wisconsin and Sigma Aldrich
    Sigma-Aldrich took the bronze in last year’s competition for their CompoZr zinc finger nuclease (ZFN) service, which initiates double-strand DNA breaks at specific sites to knock out even a single base pair. This year the company follows up with the first fruit of that platform—the knockout rat.

    “We all knew how well CompoZr worked in cell lines, and the natural extension was to use that in vivo,” says Edward Weinstein, director of the company’s Sigma Advanced Genetic Engineering (SAGE) Labs.

    This year, Medical College of Wisconsin researchers used custom zinc-finger nucleases from Sigma to create the first targeted knockout rats, some of which glowed green with the expression of a fluorescent protein, such as GFP. Now rodents beyond mice can be developed into models of specific human diseases.

    Dave Smoller, president of Sigma’s research biotech business unit, says that Sigma can make custom zinc finger nucleases for $25,000–$35,000, but that as different proteins are validated and “put on the shelf,” the price could come down for some commonly targeted genes. Weinstein said that SAGE Labs aims to sell rat models of human diseases for “a reasonable price,” but declined to be more specific, and will take orders for custom knockout rats. SAGE has already inked a deal with the Michael J. Fox Foundation to create a panel of five different knockout rats that lack genes implicated in Parkinson’s disease.

    WILEY: This advancement shows the real power of the ZFN technology. Gene knockouts have proven to be revolutionary in understanding gene function, but have been mostly restricted to mice and simpler model organisms. ZFN technology provides a new approach for making knockouts in a greater variety of organisms.

    LEVY: Beyond transgenics, ZFN have numerous applications in basic research, agriculture, and possibly medical therapeutics.

    A camera that quantifies

    Image Courtesy of Photometrics
    Measuring and comparing the level of fluorescence emanating from proteins, capturing co-localization events at membranes, and depicting viral entry are the bread and butter of cell biologists, who often measure these phenomena using electron-multiplying charge-coupled device (EMCCD) cameras. But these devices spit out figures in units of measurement that are essentially arbitrary, dependent on gain settings that can vary from camera to camera or over time. This means that imaging data is basically irreproducible within and across labs.

    The Evolve camera, however, makes imaging data quantifiable and reproducible by measuring images in units of photoelectrons, which result when photons from fluorescent proteins or reflected light hit the camera’s sensors. This overlays detailed images with quantitative, standardized data on how many photoelectrons were captured per pixel.

    “What we want is for scientists to realize the value of this and start using that unit of measure,” says Deepak Sharma, senior product manager at Photometrics, which released the camera at the end of February.

    Sharma won’t say exactly how many Evolves Photometrics has sold so far, but says that the number sold this year is “not in the thousands yet.” Sharma says that the cost of a new Evolve varies according to geography, but that it is “comparable” to EM cameras with a similar CCD, which can go for upwards of $30,000. “We feel that in 4 or 5 years this is going to have changed the direction of imaging science—standardized it.”

    WANG: Imagine a world where researchers could reproduce their imaging experiments and more directly compare their data. Just think of the scientific advances we could make if studies were more quantitative and verifiable. And consider the new insights we could derive from being able to integrate data from different experiments.

    There’s an ever-growing armament of tools for tagging proteins to watch cellular events unfold, but until recently, researchers lacked ways to experimentally manipulate those events with the same molecular-level precision. A handful of genetically encoded light-sensitive systems have now been reported that do just that, but most require a heavy dose of protein engineering (see this issue’s Lab Tools).

    Wendell Lim and his colleagues at the University of California, San Francisco, may have found a solution. Normally, the light-sensitive plant protein phytochrome and its binding partner, phytochrome interaction factor (PIF), link up and translocate to the nucleus in response to red light; infrared light breaks the bond. The researchers modified the genes so that the pair, when activated, instead moved to the cell membrane. They then linked PIF to a cytoskeletal protein. Spatially targeted pulses of red light flipped on PIF, which in turn activated the cytoskeletal protein, reshaping the cell (Nature, 461:997–1001, 2009).

    Phytochrome “converts light into a protein-protein interaction,” says Lim. Researchers can link PIF to any number of proteins, potentially making the system applicable to a broader array of cell processes than other light-controlled systems, he adds.

    The group submitted the mutant phytochrome and PIF plasmids to Addgene, a nonprofit plasmid repository that facilitates distribution of plasmids among the scientific community. Researchers can request the plasmids for about $65 each.

    WILEY: Because the system is genetically encoded, modular (works with any pair of proteins), reversible, and uses nontoxic wavelengths of light, it is likely to have an extremely high impact.

    LEVY: This data may offer an unprecedented ability to control protein interaction and localization in the cell.

    Quick pathogen ID

    When facing an outbreak of an unknown, deadly pathogen, any delay costs lives. So in the 1990s, during a government-run meeting on biodefense, David Ecker was disappointed by the best ideas being offered for pathogen detection. “They were talking about the Gram stain,” Ecker recalls.

    At the time Ecker, at Ibis Biosciences, had been using mass spectrometry to test drug candidates for their ability to bind to RNA, by comparing the atomic weight of a bound RNA to an unbound (lighter) molecule. He figured, why not use the tool to identify genomes based on their different weights? “If we could measure a small molecule sticking to a nucleic acid, I could just measure a nucleic acid.”

    The trick was to design PCR primers for conserved areas in a viral or bacterial genome, making them universal for an entire class of pathogens. The part of the genome sandwiched by the primers and amplified by PCR would be variable enough to distinguish a particular strain and subtype within each class of pathogen.

    While it hasn’t been approved for clinical trials or diagnostics yet, the machine is being used for testing basic mutation rates in viruses, forensics, and other applications, including being used by the U.S. Navy and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify the new H1N1 virus.

    After their acquisition by Abbott Laboratories late last year, Ibis and Abbott engineers designed a sleeker version of the machine called the PLEX-ID, which the Wall Street Journal dubbed the Innovation of the Year. The tool costs more than $100,000, and $30–$40 per sample.

    PISTON: This automated molecular “canary” combines genetics, robotics, spectroscopy, and informatics to greatly accelerate the identification of unknown diseases, and early detection is always important.

    WANG: High-throughput detection of infectious agents is a timely development in light of the continuous threats from pandemic agents.

    Pluripotency from proteins

    Protein-induced pluripotent stem cell colonies express endogenous nanog (immunostained in red). Image Courtesy of Hongyan Zhou
    This year’s most exciting innovation, announced in April, circumvents the complications that come with the most common technique for reprogramming cells to an embryonic-like state. For the first time, Sheng Ding of Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and his colleagues induced pluripotency in mouse embryonic fibroblast cells using only proteins, avoiding genetic modification altogether.

    “The iPS cell technology was really a breakthrough discovery, but genetic modification [poses] tremendous hurdles for practical applications,” including the potential to cause diseases such as cancer, says Ding.

    The team struggled with the idea for nearly 2 years before finding the right conditions and the perfect combination of ingredients, which included the protein form of Shinya Yamanaka’s four transcription factors, as well as a histone deacetylase inhibitor known to enhance reprogramming efficiency (Cell Stem Cell, 4(5):381–84, 2009).

    San Diego–based Fate Therapeutics, of which Ding is a founder, holds the exclusive license for the protein-induced stem cell technology and the specialized cells derived from it. The technology—which could consist of the solution of proteins with validated protocols or the pluripotent cells themselves—is not commercially available yet, but is being developed “in association with partners,” says Fate CFO Scott Wolchko.

    Wolchko declined to comment on the cost other than to say that it will depend on “the ultimate application of the technology,” with the most basic applications such as toxicology testing and the development of reagents at the low end of the price scale, and more advanced drug development and cell therapy applications costing a bit more.

    WANG: This study not only overcomes the danger of using transgenes to generate iPS cells, but its result also suggests, to my amazement, that pluripotency, once induced, can be self-propagated without the continuous supply of the exogenous recombinant proteins.

    PISTON: Since there is still disagreement about the genetic profile of iPSCs, an alternative derivation of them that preserves their functionality will create new useful cell lines and also lead to better understanding of these cells.

    Judge Profiles
    JEAN Y.J. WANG, based at the University of California, San Diego, is a distinguished professor in medicine, the chair of the biomedical sciences graduate program, and the associate director of basic research at the Moores UCSD Cancer Center. In studying the functions of cancer genes, her laboratory employs biochemistry, cell biology, molecular biology, mouse genetic models and high- throughput technologies, to elucidate the functional interactions of oncogenes and tumor suppressors in the regulation of differentiation and cell death.

    DAVID PISTON is a professor of molecular physiology & biophysics at Vanderbilt University. He is the director of the Vanderbilt Biophotonics Institute, as well as the co-director for biomedical application of Vanderbilt’s Advanced Computer Center for Research and Education (ACCRE). His lab uses quantitative fluorescence microscopy to study living cells and tissues, and he established an in vivo molecular imaging center at Vanderbilt.

    H. STEVEN WILEY is the lead biologist at the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, where he uses cell imaging, computational biology and high-throughput proteomics to understand cell communication. His work combines the techniques of molecular and cellular biology with both biochemical and optical assays, and uses the results to construct computer models of the cellular processes. He sits on the editorial board of The Scientist, where he is also a columnist.

    SHAWN LEVY is faculty investigator at the HudsonAlpha Institute for Biotechnology. Prior to joining HudsonAlpha, Levy was an assistant professor of biomedical informatics and molecular physiology and biophysics at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. His research interests include technology and methods development in high-density gene expression profiling, genotyping, structural and functional genomics, and the development of bioinformatic tools for the integration of clinical and molecular data from diverse technology platforms.
    http://www.the-scientist.com/templates/trackable/display/article1.jsp?a_day=1&index=1&year=2009&page=41&month=12&o_url=2009/12/1/41/1

  • New drug target for cancer

    Hope for cancer patients.
    Story:
    Scientists have developed a new drug that blocks a transcription factor — previously thought to be un-blockable — that has been causally linked to leukemia and several other cancers of the lungs, ovaries, pancreas, and gastrointestinal tract, they report in Nature this this week.
    The Notch transcription factor regulates cell-cell communication in the Notch signaling pathway, a system governing cell growth and development. Mutations in the transcription factor can result in uncontrolled cell growth, often causing cells to turn cancerous. But transcription factors are notoriously hard for medicinal chemists to target because they work by forming complexes with multiple proteins, leaving no open binding sites for small molecules to fit into.
    http://www.the-scientist.com/blog/display/56143/

    “It’s exciting research,” said Andrew Weng, a molecular biologist at the British Columbia Cancer Agency in Canada, who was not involved in the study. “A lot of people have been asking for a way to inhibit transcription factors, but efforts have been unsuccessful for so long. This new study holds a lot of therapeutic potential.”

  • Wrong Predictions-Scientists to be blamed?

    Predictions are often the result of pressure and sensalisation by the media.Normally a Scientist is reluctant to predict as he knows the imponderables always exist and he is extra cautious.
    Claims of immediate results and break throgh sre often made by adminstrators of a research facility where the Scientist in charge,who is more of an adminstrator than a scientist;he does so to ensure funds, with out realising he is hurting the scientific community in the long run.This does not mean scientists are above board.
    Barring few exceptions ,people take scientific research as a profession not as a vocation.
    Few have the passion of a Newton,Einstein.
    When your future hinges on immediate results,which is not possible in research,professional scientists engage in fabricating resutls to save their career.
    Another reason for immediate results not coming forth as before is too much of formal education has dulled intutive perception, which underlies great findings like Clarke’s Table,Relativity,Laws of motion.

    Story:
    A South Korean postage stamp issued in 2005 depicts a scene that is reminiscent of the iconic human evolution cartoon in which a stooping ape evolves, in six or so steps, into an upright, bipedal Homo sapiens. It shows a paraplegic man climbing slowly out of his wheelchair, standing up straight, and then performing a giant leap of celebration. Placed next to an image of an ovum undergoing the technique of nuclear transfer, the message was clear: Thanks to the groundbreaking publications of Hwang Woo-Suk, therapeutic cloning was a medical miracle that had as good as happened. The trouble is, it hadn’t happened. And nearly 4 years on, it still hasn’t.

    South Korea was understandably proud of Hwang’s achievements and, like the rest of the world, excited by his claims and those of researchers worldwide that his human embryonic stem cell (hESC) techniques were set to provide therapies for not only spinal injuries, but Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and a host of other degenerative diseases. The rest is history. By January 2006, it was clear that Hwang’s pioneering papers had been fabricated and that the eleven individualized human stem cell lines he claimed to have established did not exist. Hwang left Seoul National University and was subject to criminal investigation, the stamp was withdrawn from circulation, and the world still awaits approval for the first hESC therapeutic application.

    It can sometimes feel as if cures for diseases are forever 10 years off, while nuclear fusion seems to have been 50 years away from practical reality for about half a century now. It doesn’t take anything so extreme as scientific fraud to scupper what may have seemed, at the time, to be a well-grounded scientific prediction. At its most enthusiastic, science has always been prone to promise rather more, and sooner, than it has managed to deliver. It can sometimes feel as if cures for diseases are forever 10 years off, while nuclear fusion seems to have been 50 years away from practical reality for about half a century now. It might be easy to look back and laugh at claims that eugenics would spell the end for not only heritable diseases, but also of social problems such as vagrancy and crime, but a 1989 Science editorial’s claim during the run-up to the human genome project that the new genetics could help reduce homelessness by tackling mental illness1 is perhaps fresh enough to make biologists’ toes curl with embarrassment.

    Meanwhile, in bleaker moments, scientific authorities have predicted the end of the world and civilization as we know them at the hand of pandemics or environmental catastrophe. And yet we are still here, in defiance of Thomas Malthus’s eighteenth-century warnings about overpopulation and ecologist Paul Ehrlich’s prophesy in his 1968 book The Population Bomb that “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”

    Related ArticlesAuthors of Our Own Misfortune

    The Future of Public Engagement

    The Scientist as Politician
    Of course, scientists have a strong incentive to make bold predictions—namely, to obtain funding, influence, and high-profile publications. But while few will be disappointed when worst-case forecasts fail to materialize, unfulfilled predictions—of which we’re seeing more and more—can be a blow for patients, policy makers, and for the reputation of science itself.

    In 1995, for example, an expert panel on gene therapy convened by the U.S. National Institutes of Health’s then-director Harold Varmus2 concluded: “Expectations of current gene therapy protocols have been oversold. Overzealous representation of clinical gene therapy has obscured the exploratory nature of the initial studies, colored the manner in which findings are portrayed to the scientific press and public, and led to the widely held, but mistaken, perception that clinical gene therapy is already highly successful. Such misrepresentation threatens confidence in the field and will inevitably lead to disappointment in both medical and lay communities.”

    cientists have been making predictions for as long as there have been scientists. Indeed, without speculating about the future, it would be impossible to make decisions about how best to proceed. But there is reason to believe that promises are becoming more central to the scientific process.

    Sir Ian Wilmut, leader of the Roslin Institute team that cloned Dolly the sheep, says that a “soundbite” media culture that demands uncomplicated, definitive, and sensational statements plays a significant role. “It’s [the media] who put the most pressure on scientists to make predictions,” he says. And in a radio or TV interview that allows perhaps only 10 or 20 seconds for an answer, “it’s very easy then to inadvertently mislead.”

    But it might also pay scientists—financially and politically—to go along with such demands, and to indulge in what Joan Haran, Cesagen Research Fellow at Cardiff University, UK, diplomatically calls “discursive overbidding,” whereby they talk up the potential value of work for which they seek the support of funds, changes in legislation or public approval.

    “Since the late 20th century, scientists no longer quite have that quality that we used to speak of as scientists being disinterested. They are now very interested,” says Hilary Rose, professor emerita of the sociology of science at the University of Bradford, UK and Gresham College London. “Many clearly manage to rise above this, but the basic culture of science has changed.”

    Various developments such as the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act in the United States, and the rise of the spin-out companies from universities, mean that research has become more intrinsically bound up with the commercial world. Many biotech companies are now led by financial directors rather than scientific directors, says Nik Brown, co-director of the Science and Technology Studies Unit, University of York, UK. The past decade has seen a rise in the number of financial experts appointed to influential positions in biotech companies, for instance. And since the end of the Cold War, he says, the central role of science has become less about security and more about economy, with science and technology becoming central to many nations’ economic strategy.

    Some famous (and infamous) predictions YEAR PREDICTION RIGHT OR WRONG?
    1869 Dmitri Mendeleev’s periodic table left spaces for elements that he predicted would be discovered. Three of these (gallium, scandium, and germanium) were subsequently discovered within his lifetime. RIGHT
    1964 Physicists predict the existence of the Higgs Boson. If CERN’s Large Hadron Collider finds no evidence for the existence of this massive fundamental particle, working models of the material universe might require a fundamental rethink. PENDING
    1965 Intel cofounder Gordon E. Moore predicts that the number of transistors on a computer chip would double every two years. The industry has so far managed to keep up (despite many predictions over the years about the law’s imminent demise). RIGHT
    1968 Entomologist Paul Ehrlich predicts that hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in the next two decades. WRONG
    2002 At the website longbets.org, astronomer Sir Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society, predicts that “By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” Also at Long Bets, entrepreneurial engineer Ray Kurzweil bets $10,000 that by 2029 a computer will have passed the Turing Test for machine intelligence. PENDING
    2003 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory sponsored GeneSweep, a sweepstakes on the number of human genes. While bids averaged around 60,000 genes, it was eventually won by a bid of 25,947—the lowest of the hundreds received. WRONG
    2007 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th Assessment Report projects that global surface air temperatures will increase by between 1.1 and 6.4°C over preindustrial levels by the end of the century. PENDING
    http://www.the-scientist.com/2009/11/1/28/1/