A the time of this piece being written,AIADMK,led by Jayalalithaa, is heading for a 3/4 majority in the recently concluded polls for which counting is still on.
That the AIADMK shall win was expected ,but not on this scale independently.
DMDK of Vijaykanth has helped to ward off DMK in the traditional stronghold of DMK in North Tamil Nadu;Western Tamil Nadu has been brought into fold by splitting the Community based Kongu Peravai etc.
But the DMK could not fare well in southern parts ,despite Azhzgiri;s muscle and money power is astonishing.
It seems that the people have been waiting to pounce on the DMK.
As this is being written,except Karunanidhi, his son Stalin,Deputy Chief Minister, and Durai Murugan, all other Ministers seem to heading for a rout.
Vijaykanth has definitely ,with his 8% vote bank, swung the total votes in favor of the AIADMK.
However AIADMKhas done extremely well on its own where Vijaykanth did not split anti-DMK voted.
Scoring 25 seats out of 41 seats contested in four years can not be wished away,thanks to AIADMK alliance.
With what cheek did Congress demanded 63 seats from DMK,even to the point of wrecking alliance, whn they have landed with 8 seats?
A percentage of about 7-8 %of total votes polled from its traditional 20%
Congress will be pleased that it had got rid of the 2G monkey off its back.
It can breathe easy at the Center , with out Karuninidhi’s Blackmail.
Pronob Mukherjee hinted at this in his immediate reaction to results in Tamil Nadu by saying ‘this is expected’-possibly articulating that this is the best way to get away from DMK-but the price is too heavy.
As to Congress , time it realized that it pays to heed to Rahul Gandhi and stand the Elections alone in Tamil Nadu-may be they would get less seats than what they used to get traditionally, but would never have below 8 seats any way and got rid of the old and useless paper leaders of Congress in Tamil Nadu and infuse young blood.
Congress today attributed the DMK-led alliance’s rout in Tamil Nadu to anti-incumbency and explained away by saying it was the turn of the Opposition AIADMK to come to power. Health
Minister and party leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said the “anti-incumbency factor” played a major role in the defeat of the DMK-Congress combine in Tamil Nadu.
“In states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Kerala hardly any party has won successive terms. There is always a change in the government. This time there is a change,” he told TV channels.
“Anti-incumbency factor played a major role. Last time, it was the turn of the DMK to win and this time if one goes by that convention it was AIADMK’s turn,” he said.
NEW DELHI: The six week-wait for who will rule Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Assam and West Bengal will be over in a few hours from now as the counting of votes for Assembly elections in these states has got underway.
The counting process started at 8am in 839 halls spread over in five states involving 43,982 personnel.
The Election Commission has made elaborate arrangements for the massive exercise and pressed into service nearly 17,700 central security personnel to provide a three-tier security.
The entire process, which would decide the fate of several political leaders, is being videographed to prevent any malpractice. According to Chief Election Commissioner S Y Quraishi, the poll outcome is expected by “early lunch”.
“Efficient and secure arrangements are in place for counting and declaration of results”, Quraishi said.
The counting is taking place in 142 counting halls in Assam, 140 in Kerala, 11 in Puducherry, 234 in Tamil Nadu and 312 in West Bengal.
While Kerala has an assembly strength of 140, Assam has 126, Tamil Nadu 234, Puducherry 30 and West Bengal 294.
A total of 14.16 crore voters exercised their franchise in the five states which was 20 per cent of the total 72.8 crore electorate in the country with Tamil Nadu and West Bengal registering “all time record turnouts”.
While West Bengal recorded 84.46 per cent voter turnout this time, in 2006 Assembly poll it had 81.97 per cent polling. In Tamil Nadu, in the recent poll 78.80 per cent voters exercised their franchise compared to 70.82 per cent in 2006 poll. Puducherry had 85.57 per cent (it was 85.46 per cent in 2006 poll) voter turnout this time, Assam 76.04 per cent (75.77 per cent) and Kerala recorded 75.12 per cent (72.38 per cent) during this election.
Preset ideologies, Ambivalence towards Industry,Goondaism cost the Urban Votes.
In addition forced land acquisition and poor compensation for Lands cost the Rural Votes.
Add to this- the fiery and rumbustious style of Mamata Bannerjee Politics.
The survey projects the Trinamool and Congress are likely to win 210-220 seats, while the Left is likely to manage just 65-70 in a 294-member House.
For the ruling Left, it might be a loss of 153 to 168 seats. Simply put, the Left is staring at a rout.
And it’s a total reversal of fortunes for Mamata’s anti-Left Mahajot – 159 to 169 seats more than the last Assembly elections of 2006.
As for the vote share of the players in the 2006 elections, the Left was the undisputed champion with 48% vote share.
The Trinamool and Congress had 41% vote share together. Trinammol and Congress had fought separately in 2006. Their numbers have been added to put things in perspective.
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